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Grantham: You Should Buy Now Even Though Market Could Tank

Posted Mar 16, 2009 12:05pm EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking

From The Business Insider, March 16, 2009:

Should you really buy stocks now, when the whole world is going to hell in a handbasket?

Yes.

Why?

Because stock prices are now low enough that they are priced to return about 10%+ per year over the next 10 years.

Importantly, this does NOT mean that stocks can't fall another 50% from here.  They can.  And they very well might.  It just means that, if history is any guide, stock prices should be compellingly higher 10 years from now.

Jeremy Grantham expresses the choice succinctly:

Life is simple:  if you invest too much too soon you
will regret it; “How could you have done this with the
economy so bad, the market in free fall, and the history
books screaming about overruns?” On the other hand,
if you invest too little after talking about handsome
potential returns and the market rallies, you deserve to
be shot.

Jeremy's full argument below.  Interestingly, he has again revised his "fair value" estimate for the S&P 500 down, this time to 900--which is still 20% above where the market is now.  Before the market collapsed, Jeremy put fair value at 975.  Let's hope that trend doesn't continue.

See Also from The Business Insider:
How Low Can The Market Go?
Stocks Now Distinctly Cheap

161 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 16, 2009 12:15PM EDT

Dollar averaging investing is key here. However, with all these high salaries (AIG, Goldman, etc) (per salarylist.com real data) I think the greed is still too high. Be patient, there will be plenty of time to invest.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 16, 2009 12:16PM EDT

Hear that? If you buy now, there’s A CHANCE you’ll hit the jackpot, and then you can be like all the greedy scumbags everyone hates now. Or, you could lose everything and wind up sitting on the curb. Sounds worth it to me….

matt a
matt a - Monday March 16, 2009 12:17PM EDT

AIG!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 16, 2009 12:19PM EDT

There were bounces during the stock market crash from 1929-1933. However, the overall trend was still down! Just because it goes up for a few days or a few weeks, it still doesn't change the fact that it is tanking. The market has not yet reached bottom.

ADP
ADP - Monday March 16, 2009 12:21PM EDT

Just ask the Japanese. Their market still hasn't made it back to the highs of the late 80s early 90s.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Monday March 16, 2009 12:22PM EDT

4 days today........Less than 4 points up on the second day of the current so-called "Rally" hardly qualified for an up day, just as 4 points down would not have indicated a down day.......both would be considered "FLAT" you PINHEADS......more padding of the numbers? to create another false boom? so even more unwiitting can lose THEIR ASSES?...I guess...........no thank you!

Jim,MtnViewCA,USA
Jim,MtnViewCA,USA - Monday March 16, 2009 12:23PM EDT

At first, I thought this article was quoting Granholm, the governor of Michigan. THAT would make sense, politicians want you to be in the market. They are all about taking risks and spending with OTHER PEOPLE's money. Now, who is the Grantham guy? And why should we care?

- Monday March 16, 2009 12:23PM EDT

I'm back to half-allocations myself, up from 70% cash a few weeks back. (To clarify, that means I have half the money in emerging markets that I would in "normal" market conditions.) Even if it turns out to be a bear-market rally, I'd rather pick up some small gains along the way. Just have to watch them like a hawk!

Jim,MtnViewCA,USA
Jim,MtnViewCA,USA - Monday March 16, 2009 12:23PM EDT

At first, I thought this article was quoting Granholm, the governor of Michigan. THAT would make sense, politicians want you to be in the market. They are all about taking risks and spending with OTHER PEOPLE's money. Now, who is the Grantham guy? And why should we care?

- Monday March 16, 2009 12:25PM EDT

This whole average cost basis and continually buy over time is wise for people who just dont know any better. If your at all in touch with the markets, why does buying now seem rational when most believe we have farther to fall? Why pay more for stock why you can pick the same stock up at cheaper prices in a month? Of course financial advisors or company executives will promote buying stock as it benefits them.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Monday March 16, 2009 12:26PM EDT

NOT CONVINCED.....

William Kolb
William Kolb - Monday March 16, 2009 12:29PM EDT

Stocks are cheap. You can buy 100 shares of a solid blue chip industrial corporation--GE--for less than the price of a full basket of groceries at the supermarket. Prices for securities have not been this low for a long time. You can buy 100 share of a major chip builder AMD for the price of 2 pounds of coffee and a venti drink at Starkbucks. Oil has fallen over $100/barrel--do you really think that the price of gas will never go up? It would be hard not to make money in today's stock market.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 16, 2009 12:30PM EDT

You first, shill!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 16, 2009 12:30PM EDT

Screw the stock market, buy Peanut Butter! Peanut Butter has hit bottom because of the recent salmonella scare and is poised to skyrocket in 2009 as the peoples' illogical fear of Peanut Butter is beginning to wane. Peanut Butter is a guaranteed 10-bagger in 2009! Mark my words as you'll wish you were along for the ride!

Mizesa
Mizesa - Monday March 16, 2009 12:36PM EDT

10% and not even guaranteed. What a fool! Why not buy preferred stocks paying 20%?

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Monday March 16, 2009 12:37PM EDT

yeah we could get inflation....but then even more businesses will file BK, when the consumer suffers even more......I DON'T SEE WAGES GOING UP!......it's about those earnings people!......how bout earnings for the worker too? Lets not forget the poor ol' worker folks.....they are the spending power.....and many are in Bread Lines....say in places like; ELKHART, IN.........go ahead it's your money.

Cindy
Cindy - Monday March 16, 2009 12:38PM EDT

Fortuately, the majority of the people in this country don't read (or do read but only for comedy purposes) the predictable, doom and gloom, sky is falling comments of the people who troll the Yahoo! posts. What do you do with your free time when we are not in a recession? Do none of you people have anyone in your lives you can grid your axe to?......more than likely you've been griding this axe for so long like a broken record the people in your life avoid you altogether. Sad.

Enlightener
Enlightener - Monday March 16, 2009 12:39PM EDT

You Should Buy Now Even Though Market Could Tank = Buy and hold without regard to risk management of principal That is horrendous advice!

Enlightener
Enlightener - Monday March 16, 2009 12:42PM EDT

You Should Buy Now Even Though Market Could Tank = Buy and hold without regard to risk management of principal That is horrendous advice!

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Monday March 16, 2009 12:42PM EDT

IF YOU BELIEVE THIS IS THE BOOM, I HAVE A BRIDGE.....I MEAN A HOUSE TO SELL YOU.

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